El Nino May Get Worse This Winter, says NOAA Latest Update

According to a recently issued NOAA monthly update, El Nino is predicted to increase over the next few months. 

It might become moderate to strong, potentially impacting hurricane season and the weather this winter.

The key points from the July update are summarized below:

• Although the El Nino phenomenon was declared to be started a month ago, weak circumstances still exist.

There is a 90% chance that El Nino will last through the winter.

El Nino could become strong this winter

• Throughout the fall and winter, El Nino is expected to intensify and most likely reach its peak intensity in the moderate to strong category.

According to NOAA, there is an 81% likelihood that the storm will be that intense between November and January.

Both El Nino and La Nia often reach their heights in the late fall or early winter before diminishing the following spring.

• According to NOAA, there is a 1 in 5 probability that the current El Nino will become "historically strong," comparable to episodes in 2015–16 and 1997–98. 

El Nino generally has a greater impact on global weather patterns the stronger it gets.

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